| V I S U A L I Z Z A D I S C U S S I O N E |
| silverio |
Inserito il - 25/09/2017 : 12:22:38
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Sep 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Sep,
26 Sep, 27 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 367 km/s at 23/2120Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
24/1722Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/1836Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 12883 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Sep), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (26 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(27 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 087
Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 090/095/095
90 Day Mean 24 Sep 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 014/016-008/008-016/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/35
Minor Storm 15/05/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 50/25/65
E SPORADIC PRESENTE 108 KM ORE 11 UTC. |
|
|
